en Passant

In an IT group that I belong to, someone asked for predictions for the industry in 2008. I responded with a list of my top 5 predictions for 2008. For your consideration, here is my list of predictions along with a short description of why I think so.

• A new email borne virus is going to hit and hit everyone. The industry is long-overdue for a new virus to strike. We've become complacent with the technology and trust that it will work. Many users have simply quit installing a solution and trust firewalls (or luck) to protect them. I predict that a new breed of virus is going to strike, taking out most computers. Start backing up now.
• Wireless Internet devices become a BIG deal. "I want my IP phone + music + kindle + video + Internet" We've seen the inclining to this already. iPhone is selling well, and everyone wants to hack it. Kindle did surprisingly well (according to their own accord). I predict that a single device is going to tie together a few industries (but not be tied to any one company) and capture the market, sort of like Blackberry did a few years back. This device will be affordable for the mass market. It will provide connectivity to all of the elements that we want and need. It will be large enough to be used on a regular basis, possibly replacing my cell phone, laptop. Using wireless technologies, it could even be used everywhere (WiFi, WiMax?, Bluetooth, G3, VHF/UHF spectrum??, etc.)
• Google buys 700mhz spectrum, and sells a single device that does all that with no per minute fees; free, but ADWords based or monthly flat rate subscription. Google does have the financial capability and initiative to pull something like this off. Taking advantage of the 700mhz spectrum to create a new Internet seems like their cup-of-tea. Different, innovative and capable of helping them index "the world's information".
• First decline in new blogging sites. Over the last few years, there has been a steady increase in the number of new blog sites. According to a 2006 CNet article, there where 2 new blogs created every second. It is coming time for market saturation. There comes a point in any sites life when the contributor (blogger, webmaster, etc.) says "why do I bother?" Is the number of readers to my site worth my effort? For most it will not. Only the most dedicated will continue to contribute to their existing blogs, and in turn create fewer blogs.
• Seti@Home project is going to hacked and turned into a spammers/hackers bot-net. Imagine the power of 1 idle home computer processing information. Heck, even a slightly used computer (browsing, email) with only 60-80% of the CPU available processing information in the background. Now turn that into 1 million homes, that have voluntarily subscribed to the BOINC project to process extra-terrestrial radio signals, do cancer research, etc. turned to evil. If one ingenious hacker could figure out a way to insert his code into the agent, they could start cracking passwords for foreign countries, or process stacks of account information. In a different form, this has already been done. Using distributed computing on a smaller scale, hackers cracked HD-DVD encryption codes and large-bit encryption keys. It's is only time...

Like a fortune teller, these are simply my opinions based on what I currently know see, and hear in the industry. While I take no responsibility if a new virus comes around or my installation of BOINC triggers a new round of spam, I would like to have all royalities for the new lap-pad(?) sent to my home address.

:)